Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan

Critical levels for ozone of three species of forest tree as judged by the Liphook Forest Fumigation Experiment [abstract]

Attempts arc in progress within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe to define "critical levels" for various receptors. The critical level is intended to be the concentration of a pollutant at which there is no significant harmful effect. Setting a critical level for ozone effects on forest trees is handicapped by a shortage of experimental data under European conditions. During the Liphook Forest Fumigation Experiment, three species of forest tree (Scots pine, Norway spruce and Sitka spruce) were fwnigated with 03 at a target concentration of I .5x ambient for 3.5 years in an open-air fumigation system. Ozone effects were not large, suggesting that the critical level should be correspondingly high. The open-air technique gives data free from chamber artifacts, but may introduce artifacts of its own. This paper will briefly review the effects 3 had on the trees; consider different measures of 03 exposure an whether the experimental conditions gave a proper concentration-frequency profile; factors (soil, climatic etc.) which could have modified the response; and finally the implications for critical levels

Dedication of the special issue to Colin Neal

This Special Issue, “Climate change and coupling of macronutrient cycles along the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and estuarine continuum” is dedicated to the career of Colin Neal, whose work over the years has generated so many concepts and so much data to support on-going research in this important research area. This note is concerned with Colin and his contributions to the scientific literature

Climate change and coupling of macronutrient cycles along the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and estuarine continuum

This paper provides an introduction to the Special Issue on “Climate Change and Coupling of Macronutrient Cycles along the Atmospheric, Terrestrial, Freshwater and Estuarine Continuum”, dedicated to Colin Neal on his retirement. It is not intended to be a review of this vast subject, but an attempt to synthesize some of the major findings from the 22 contributions to the Special Issue in the context of what is already known. The major research challenges involved in understanding coupled macronutrient cycles in these environmental media are highlighted, and the difficulties of making credible predictions of the effects of climate change are discussed. Of particular concern is the possibility of interactions which will enhance greenhouse gas concentrations and provide positive feedback to global warming

Excess nitrogen deposition Issues for consideration

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:7761.0388(RD/L--3325/R88) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

The effect of different tree species on soil pH

SIGLELD:3106.1337(TPRD/L--2239N82). / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

A description of the Tillingbourne catchment

SIGLELD:3106.1337(TPRD/L--2278N82). / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo